白糖产业日报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - International factors such as the improved prospects and expected restorative production increase in major Asian sugar - producing countries due to the monsoon season, along with the increased supply of Brazilian sugar, are suppressing the raw sugar price. In the domestic market, in May 2025, China's sugar imports reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. With the import window open, import pressure is rising, which is putting downward pressure on sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support to prices. The sugar price is showing an adjustment trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,721 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the main contract position was 353,799 lots, down 15,173 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,539 lots, down 5,111 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,393 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,415 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,578 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,606 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning was 6,050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Liuzhou was 6,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area was 1,480 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 5.49 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.3509 million tons, down 128,600 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons. The national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,536 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,514 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 351 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 323 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, with no change; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On June 23, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,925 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 707 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff). The sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,889 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 655 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff) [2].