黑色产业链日报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market in 2025 differs significantly from 2023. Current demand support is weakening, and future demand may be over - drawn. Although short - term fundamentals have limited pressure, the upward space of the steel futures market is restricted [3]. - The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. Considering the approaching off - season, the current state is acceptable. Prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. - The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. - The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. - The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price Data: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed minor fluctuations compared to June 20. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil remained relatively stable [4][9]. - Market Analysis: The current steel market has limited short - term fundamental pressure, but the upward space of the futures market is restricted due to factors such as the approaching off - season and potential over - drawn future demand [3]. Iron Ore - Price Data: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased slightly compared to June 20, while the basis decreased. The prices of iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed minor changes [25]. - Market Analysis: The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. With the approaching off - season, prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - Price Data: On June 23, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The coking profit decreased slightly [41]. - Market Analysis: The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. Ferroalloy - Price Data: On June 23, 2025, the ferroalloy (silicon - iron and silicon - manganese) futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese also changed [59][60]. - Market Analysis: The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. Soda Ash - Price Data: On June 23, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and spreads showed minor changes compared to June 20. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions also changed [71][72]. - Market Analysis: The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. Glass - Price Data: On June 23, 2025, the glass futures prices and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions also changed [99][101]. - Market Analysis: The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98].