瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. Affected by cost factors, supply prices may remain firm, but downstream terminals clearly resist high prices. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to be basically stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,650 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 10,874, a decrease of 2,322; the synthetic rubber 7 - 8 spread is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber are 800 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies (Qilu, Daqing, Maoming, etc.) has decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 77.01 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.84 dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 646.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.62 dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 840 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,100 dollars/ton, an increase of 30 dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 73.84 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.76 dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 587 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,163 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,950 tons, a decrease of 700 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,820 tons, an increase of 610 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,182,000 pieces, a decrease of 126,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415,000 pieces, a decrease of 124,000 pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2] Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]