瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the resumption of previously shut - down devices and possible short - term corporate failures. Agricultural demand is gradually being released, while domestic industrial rigid demand is weakening. The operating load of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low. Geopolitical factors have driven up international prices, and export demand will continue to increase in the short term. Urea will accelerate the process of being shipped to ports this week, and with the advancement of agricultural demand, the amplitude of urea inventory reduction may increase. The UR2509 contract is recommended for short - term trading in the range of 1700 - 1770 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1711 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 25 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 233,160 lots, an increase of 7,750 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 4,628, a decrease of 7,246. The exchange warehouse receipts are 0, a decrease of 3,581 [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have all declined, with Shandong seeing the largest drop of 70 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is 39 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports have increased, with increases of 15 dollars/ton and 17.5 dollars/ton respectively [2] 3.3 Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 29.5 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 113.6 million tons, a decrease of 4.11 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.28%, an increase of 0.48%. The daily urea output is 204,400 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. The urea export volume is 0, with no change. The monthly output is 6,293,230 tons, an increase of 448,150 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.82%, a decrease of 1.99%. The melamine operating rate is 64.32%, an increase of 0.55%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 186 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.809 million tons, a decrease of 1.0417 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 113.60 million tons, a decrease of 4.11 million tons from the previous week, a 3.49% decrease. As of June 19, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 29.5 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons, a 20.41% increase. As of June 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4307 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.24% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 88.28%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous period, with the trend changing from decreasing to increasing [2] 3.6提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]