燃料油早报-20250623

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - This week, high-sulfur cracking fluctuated, crude oil prices rose significantly, Iran accounted for a large proportion of high-sulfur supply, and it performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, the 8-9 spread was $7.5, the basis fluctuated, and there was a differentiation between near and far months of FU at home and abroad. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuated at $8. The 0.5 cracking in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated [4]. - This week, land-based inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, and were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15%-20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, the overseas market is operating strongly, the near months of FU at home and abroad are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. Pay attention to the impact of supply disruptions in the far months. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are high [4][5]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$16.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -$9.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.66 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$36.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$26.62 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$2.65 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$6.60 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$2.38 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +$1.14 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -$0.19 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.53 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$2.55 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$6.20 | | FOB VLSFO | -$0.44 | | 380 Basis | -$1.95 | | High-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | +$0.8 | | Low-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | -$4.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -2 | | FU 05 | +11 | | FU 09 | -6 | | FU 01 - 05 | -13 | | FU 05 - 09 | +17 | | FU 09 - 01 | -4 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -21 | | LU 05 | +13 | | LU 09 | -31 | | LU 01 - 05 | -34 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -10 | [4]