摩根大通：中国房地产图表集-你所需的所有图表

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report anticipates weak-form stabilization in the property market but does not foresee a strong recovery in the near term [10] - National residential sales have shown significant declines, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% in 2022 and a projected further decline of 17.0% in 2023 [7] - The average selling price of residential properties has seen a slight increase of 2.2% in 2023, but a decrease of 4.8% is expected in 2024 [7] National Forecast - Sales value in 2023 is projected at RMB 11,662 billion, down from RMB 12,473 billion in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.5% [7] - Residential sales volume is expected to decrease to 1,117 million square meters in 2023, down from 1,221 million square meters in 2022, marking an 8.5% decline [7] - The average selling price per square meter is projected to be RMB 10,437 in 2023, with a slight increase from RMB 10,214 in 2022 [7] Sales - Aggregate contracted sales for the top 100 developers are expected to decline significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 42% in 2023 [11] - National residential sales have shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decline of 18% expected in 2024 [11] - The report highlights that major developers are experiencing varying levels of sales performance, with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) showing a decline of 6% while private developers face a more significant drop [30] Construction - New construction starts are projected to decrease to 954 million square meters in 2023, down from 1,198 million square meters in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [7] - The area under construction is expected to decline to 8,384 million square meters in 2023, down from 9,050 million square meters in 2022, marking a 7.4% decrease [7] Financing - Real estate investment is projected to decline to RMB 11,217 billion in 2023, down from RMB 12,408 billion in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [7] - Land sales proceeds are expected to drop to RMB 2,941 billion in 2023, down from RMB 3,339 billion in 2022, indicating a decline of 11.9% [7] Long-term Forecasts - The report projects a continued decline in residential sales, with expectations of a further decrease in 2024 and 2025 [11] - The long-term outlook remains cautious, with potential for gradual recovery contingent on policy support and market stabilization [10]