花旗：2025 年半导体封测业务复苏，资本支出增长在即；模型更新

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JCET Group, Tianshui Huatian, and TongFu Microelectronics, with target prices adjusted to Rmb42.000, Rmb11.500, and Rmb30.000 respectively [5][46][51]. Core Insights - The OSAT industry is expected to continue its revenue and profit growth through 2025, with a projected 20% increase in capex, benefiting back-end equipment vendors [1][3][22]. - The OSAT sector is currently halfway through its recovery phase, with demand driven by industrial, automotive, and advanced packaging for high-performance computing (HPC) and power semiconductors [2][8][21]. - JCET is highlighted as the top pick due to its significant exposure to advanced packaging and new growth potential in automotive and memory sectors [4][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The OSAT industry has been experiencing growth since 1Q24, on track for its sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, with inventory levels well managed [2][8]. - Historical growth cycles for the OSAT industry have lasted between 3 to 7 years, indicating that the current cycle is still in its early stages [2][8]. Capacity and Utilization - Overall OSAT capacity utilization rates (UTR) are estimated to be between 60-70% in 1Q25, with expectations for improvement throughout the year [3][17]. - Advanced packaging capacity remains tight, while traditional packaging is expected to drive UTR improvements in the latter half of 2025 [3][18]. Company-Specific Insights - JCET is projected to see a 40% increase in capex this year, while Tianshui Huatian and TongFu Microelectronics are also expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [3][22]. - Tianshui Huatian's reliance on AMD for 50% of its revenue poses a risk amid geopolitical tensions, despite potential gains from the industry recovery [4][26]. Financial Projections - JCET's revenue for 2025 is revised to Rmb41.457 billion, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates, with a gross profit margin of 14.1% [40]. - Tianshui Huatian's revenue is expected to remain stable at Rmb16.126 billion for 2025, while TongFu Microelectronics' revenue is adjusted down to Rmb27.441 billion [46][51].