摩根士丹利：亚洲新兴市场 2025年第一季度业绩，第二次下调-日本再次强劲超出预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the Asia EM equity strategy, particularly highlighting Japan's earnings as a standout with a net beat ratio of +25 percentage points [2][7]. Core Insights - The earnings results for 1Q25 showed a strong performance across the Asia EM region, with Japan leading at +23.3%, followed by Korea (+20.3%), Singapore (+11.9%), and Thailand (+10.5%) [2][3][26]. - Emerging Markets (EM) overall reported a moderate earnings beat of +4.7%, while Asia Pacific ex-Japan (APxJ) saw a slightly higher beat of +6.0% [2][12]. - The report notes that the strong earnings in Japan are attributed to corporate and consumer activities that were brought forward ahead of tariff announcements in early April [1]. Summary by Region - Japan reported a remarkable earnings surprise of +23.3% with a net beat ratio of 25%, marking the second consecutive quarter of strong performance [7][26]. - Korea and Singapore also performed well, with earnings surprises of +20.3% and +11.9% respectively, while Thailand reported +10.5% [3][26]. - In contrast, Brazil experienced significant misses with an earnings surprise of -7.8%, and Turkey reported a substantial decline of -29.1% [3][26]. Summary by Sector - Major sectors showing strong earnings beats include Industrials (+16.6%), Communication Services (+11.6%), and Health Care (+10.3%) [4][32]. - Consumer Staples and Materials sectors reported slight misses, with Consumer Staples at -1.6% and Materials at -1.1% [4][32]. - The Capital Goods and Telecom Services industries were particularly strong, with earnings surprises of +24.4% and +21.5% respectively [4][32]. Stock-Level Surprises - The report highlights key stock-level surprises, focusing on companies rated Overweight (OW) that are expected to see increases in 12-month consensus estimates following strong earnings beats [5]. - Conversely, Underweight (UW) rated companies are anticipated to experience downgrades due to earnings misses [5]. Revenue Surprises - Revenue results across the region showed slight beats, with EM at +1.3%, APxJ at +1.1%, and Japan slightly missing at -0.1% [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that revenue surprises were generally positive, contributing to the overall strong earnings performance in the region [2][3].