LPG早报-20250624

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the context of expected supply increase, the anticipated rise in chemical demand provides some support. It is expected that Shandong will see an improvement, while East and South China markets will be more volatile. Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, with the US attacking three Iranian nuclear facilities, which is expected to have a major impact on market sentiment, so cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Margin Changes - From June 1 to June 23, prices of products such as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, and MB propane fluctuated. For example, the price of South China LPG decreased from 4690 on June 1 to 4660 on June 20, then rose to 4695 on June 23. The price of SD alkylated oil increased from 7800 on June 1 to 8300 on June 23 [1]. - The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas, with a price of 4623. PP prices rose, PDH production margins improved, and FEI production costs were higher than CP. The PG futures price declined, and the spread between the July and September contracts increased by 2 to 99 [1]. 3.2 Market and Spread Analysis - The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The PG futures price strengthened unilaterally, mainly due to geopolitical shocks. The basis of the July contract weakened to 80 (-141), and the spreads between different contracts changed significantly, with the July - August spread at 10 and the July - September spread at 195 [1]. - Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. Regional spreads showed different trends: the internal - external spread strengthened, FEI - MB strengthened slightly, while FEI - CP and MB - CP weakened. The AFEI propane FOB discount weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount dropped significantly to 12 dollars. Freight rates increased slightly [1]. 3.3 Downstream Profit and Demand - Downstream profit situations varied. PDH spot margins improved due to rising wire drawing prices, FEI production margins for PP decreased, CP production margins increased, alkylation and MTBE margins decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread shifted downward [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals were delayed, chemical demand increased slightly, port inventories and storage ratios decreased, factory inventories remained basically flat, and external sales were basically unchanged. Chemical demand was supported, with increased PDH and MTBE operating rates and stable alkylation operating rates. Multiple PDH plants are expected to increase their loads in the future, driving up the PDH operating rate [1]. 3.4 Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 8358 lots (-647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 in Jinneng Chemical and a decrease of 377 in Shanghai Yuchi [1].