大越期货天胶早报-20250624

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and tire operating rates are at a high level [4]. - The basis is - 150 with a spot price of 13,800, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - The 20 - day line is downward, but the price is running above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) was flat on June 20th [8]. - Inventory: The exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. The Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [17]. - Import: The import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, while tire production is at a record high in the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - Likely to Rise: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6]. - Likely to Fall: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6].