大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA's fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, but there are no obvious signs of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to have limited downside space [5]. - For MEG, the supply-demand structure will turn balanced in July, and the support from fundamentals will gradually weaken. However, the market price will still be mainly affected by external and cost factors in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the report 2.每日提示 - PTA Daily View - Fundamental: The PTA futures rebounded after a decline yesterday. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere, with slightly increased spot offers and a loosened basis. The mainstream suppliers offered forward cargoes. The June cargo was mainly traded at 09+260270, and the price negotiation range was around 52205300. The July negotiation was scarce. The mainstream spot basis today is 09+264 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 5247, and the 09 contract basis is 302, with the futures at a discount, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.15 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.12 days, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Main Position: The net long position decreased, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Expectation: Although PTA's fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, there are no obvious signs of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to have limited downside space [5]. - MEG Daily View - Fundamental: On Monday, the ethylene glycol price opened higher and then declined, with fair market negotiations. Affected by the news of the potential restart of Iranian plants, the ethylene glycol futures continued to decline. The afternoon trading was weak [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4570, and the 09 contract basis is 79, with the futures at a discount, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 53.10 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.28 tons, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net short position increased, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Expectation: The supply-demand structure will turn balanced in July, and the support from fundamentals will gradually weaken. However, the market price will still be mainly affected by external and cost factors in the short term [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the report 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [9]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [11]. - Price and Margin Data: Includes the prices and margins of various products such as naphtha, PTA, PX, MEG, and polyester fibers [12]. - Inventory Analysis: Shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers [40]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Shows the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [51]. - Profit Analysis: Shows the profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers [59].