大越期货尿素早报-20250624

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The urea market shows overall oversupply, with the international situation causing supply tightness and price increases, and the domestic agricultural demand improving slightly. It is expected that the UR contract will trend weakly with oscillations today [4]. - The main bullish factors are the rising international prices and the marginal improvement of domestic agricultural demand, while the main bearish factors are the high levels of production and inventory [5]. - The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international supply and domestic demand, and the main risk is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The recent urea futures have been oscillating. International supply tightness has led to price increases, affecting the domestic market. Supply is at a multi - year high in terms of production rate and daily output, with inventory fluctuating slightly. Industrial demand shows a decline in compound fertilizer production and an increase in melamine production, while agricultural demand has improved. The overall supply - demand balance is still in oversupply, and export policies remain restricted. The spot price of the delivery product is 1920 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 200, with a premium - discount ratio of 10.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 980,000 tons (-218,000), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Main positions: The net position of the UR main contract is short, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is oscillating. With international supply tightness and price increases and the improvement of agricultural demand, but still significant oversupply, it is expected that the UR will trend weakly with oscillations today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1920 | 0 | 09 Contract | 1711 | -19 | Warehouse Receipts | 3581 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1930 | -20 | Basis | 209 | 19 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 980 | -218 | | Henan Spot | 1920 | -3 | UR01 | 1686 | -3 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 817 | -248 | | FOB China | 2549 | | UR05 | 1703 | -6 | UR Port Inventory | 163 | 30 | | | | | UR09 | 1711 | -19 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]