大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250624

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 24, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today due to factors such as the rebound of the plastic main - contract on the disk, geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East leading to rising crude oil prices, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and the pressure of new capacity investment [4]. - The PP market is also expected to show a weak and volatile trend today considering the rebound of the PP main - contract on the disk, geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing rising crude oil prices, weak demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory [7]. LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 24, the US announced a cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, causing crude oil prices to fall immediately. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for agricultural films, packaging film demand is weakening, most enterprises are reducing production loads, and overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity investment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7500 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 56, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, which is bullish [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.6 tons (-1.3), which is neutral [4]. Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. Main Position - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Considering geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new capacity investment pressure, it is expected that PE will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. Factors - Bullish factors: None mentioned - Bearish factors: New capacity investment and weak demand [6] - Main logic: Cost - demand game and tariff policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 24, the US announced a cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, causing crude oil prices to fall. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7280 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 18, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [7]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.8 tons (+2.6), which is bearish [7]. Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. Main Position - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. Expectation - The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Considering geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, weak demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend today [7]. Factors - Bullish factors: None mentioned - Bearish factors: Weak demand [9] - Main logic: Cost - demand game and tariff policies [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Quotes - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7500 (-20), the price of the 09 contract is 7444 (29), the basis is 56 (-49), etc. [10] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 7280 (0), the price of the 09 contract is 7262 (20), the basis is 18 (-20), etc. [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, there have been changes in capacity, production, net imports, etc. For example, in 2024, the capacity is 3584.5, the production is 2773.8, the net import volume is 1360.32, and the PE import dependence is 32.9% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. have also changed. In 2024, the capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import volume is 360, and the PP import dependence is 9.5% [17]