大越期货菜粕早报-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2600 - 2660. The short - term trend is slightly bullish due to low inventory and tariff policies, but the impact of tariff policies may be limited. In the short term, it is affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed and tariff policies on Canadian rapeseed products, and the price will return to range - bound oscillations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 oscillates in the range of 2600 - 2660. The fundamentals show that the opening rate of rapeseed meal oil mills is low, and the inventory is low, which supports the market. The spot demand is in the short - term peak season. The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed does not pose short - term pressure on the oil mill inventory. The short - term trend is slightly bullish. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU output and lower - than - expected Canadian output. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offsets the decrease in Ukrainian output to some extent, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased since March; the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading data: From June 12th to June 23rd, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2953 - 2999 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 9.73 - 93.47 tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 0 - 0.33 tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal ranged from 366 - 394 yuan/ton [13]. - Price data: From June 12th to June 23rd, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509) ranged from 2657 - 2694 yuan/ton, the price of the far - month contract 2601 ranged from 2363 - 2428 yuan/ton, and the spot price (Fujian) ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From June 10th to June 23rd, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 26649 to 25674 [16]. - Supply and demand balance sheet: The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2014 - 2023, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio. The domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2014 - 2023, including initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [24][25]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 oscillates in the range of 2600 - 2660. Analyzed from multiple aspects: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; the inventory is bullish; the market trend is bullish; the main position is bullish; in the short term, it is affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed and tariff policies, and the price will return to range - bound oscillations [9].