永安期货有色早报-20250624

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides weekly market analysis and investment strategies for various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate, highlighting the supply - demand situation, price trends, and potential investment opportunities and risks in each metal market [1][2][5][6][7][9][12][14] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, LME copper cancelled warrants were out of storage, and the overall LME copper inventory dropped below 100,000 tons for the first time this year. The LME cash - 3m spread continued to rise, but the 3m futures price did not follow the squeeze - up. The report is concerned about three possible fundamental changes in the third quarter: the S232 investigation rumor may land in July; after the investigation, the US copper inventory may flow back globally; and there are expectations of weakening in some sectors [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to May provided an increment. The demand in June is expected to weaken seasonally, with the export of aluminum products remaining stable and the photovoltaic sector declining. There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory reduction is gentle from June to July. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, the zinc price fluctuated widely. The supply side saw an increase in smelting output in June, and the processing fee of the ore end is expected to increase. The domestic demand is marginally weakening, while overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the premium is continuously declining. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to appear at the end of June. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation idea, hold long - short domestic - foreign arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][3] Nickel - The supply side has a high - level production of pure nickel, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. The demand is weak, and the LME premium strengthened slightly. The overseas nickel plate inventory is maintained, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. After the rumor of the Philippine ban on raw ore exports was abolished, the concern about the ore end disturbance was alleviated. Attention can be continued to be paid to the opportunity of the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have been passively reducing production. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are maintained. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired. The fundamentals are generally weak, and the spot pressure increases after the demand fades. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] Lead - This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The supply side has issues such as weak scrap battery recycling, tight waste battery supply, and environmental inspections. The demand side has high battery inventory, and the consumption is weak in the off - season. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [7] Tin - This week, the tin price fluctuated widely. The supply side has issues such as the need for negotiation on the short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, low processing fees at the ore end, and production reduction in some domestic areas. The demand side has limited elasticity in solder, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The short - term supply and demand are expected to be weak, and there is strong support at the bottom. Long - position allocation can be cautiously held in the short term, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [9] Industrial Silicon - This week, the overall market start - up increased slightly. The basis strengthened rapidly, and the spot price was strong due to the stimulation of downstream speculative and replenishment sentiment. However, as the upstream resumption of production accelerates, the spot price is expected to be under pressure. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to operate at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [12] Lithium Carbonate - This week, the lithium carbonate price declined. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply elasticity is high. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term. In the short term, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, which will put upward pressure on the price [14]