大越期货豆粕早报-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean market in the US is affected by the weather in the planting area and Sino-US tariff negotiations, with short - term fluctuations above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are also influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans, South American soybean production, and domestic demand, and are expected to be in a range - bound pattern in the short term [8][10][12] - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2960 - 3020, and the soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4300 [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to US soybeans, but the good weather for US soybean planting has led to a short - term pullback in the US market, which is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. The future trend depends on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12] - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, but the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a fluctuating pattern in the short term, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12] - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak - fluctuating pattern [12] - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal and the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean planting area support the short - term price expectation. The soybean meal market will remain fluctuating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean planting area [13] - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continues [13] Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expectation of increased domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14] - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppress the soybean price [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From June 12 to 23, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15] - Soybean and Soybean Meal Price Data: From June 12 to 23, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The futures of soybean meal were strongly fluctuating, while the spot prices were relatively weak after May Day, and the discount increased slightly [17][22] - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From June 10 to 23, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal generally showed a downward trend, with some fluctuations [19] - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory of soybeans [30][31] - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: - In the 2023/24 season, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans is provided, showing that the sowing and harvesting progress is generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [32] - In 2024, the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of US soybeans are provided, with the sowing progress slightly behind the previous year and the five - year average in some periods, and the growth and harvesting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [33][34][35][36] - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans are provided, with the planting and harvesting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [37][38] - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans are provided, with the planting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [39] - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 show changes in the harvest area, yield, output, and other information of US soybeans, as well as the output information of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [40] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content