芳烃橡胶早报-20250624

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, after the maintenance of the terminal TA is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, the polyester start - up rate rises, the inventory is slightly reduced, the basis strengthens again, and the spot processing fee improves month - on - month. Subsequently, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the monthly drive may switch between the continuous reduction of PX inventory and the additional reduction of polyester efficiency, with increased fluctuations [1]. - For MEG, the domestic maintenance continues to resume, the start - up rate continues to rise, the Iranian devices stop intensively, the port inventory is slightly reduced, the downstream stocking level rises slightly, and the basis weakens month - on - month. In the future, it will also pass the inventory reduction stage, but the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited due to Iranian import disturbances, showing a sideways pattern [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increases, the sales volume remains the same month - on - month, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The demand side has weakening efficiency, but the export maintains a high growth rate. There are also production reduction plans, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [2]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounds, and the strategy is to wait and see [2]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices and profits of related products fluctuate, and the start - up rates of different products also show different trends [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased from $76.5 to $71.5, the PX price fluctuated, and the PTA internal spot price increased from 5020 to 5260. The PTA processing difference, production and sales, and other indicators also changed [1]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials reduced the load of its 3.6 - million - ton device [1]. - Market Outlook: Gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, with the monthly drive switching between PX inventory reduction and polyester efficiency compression [1]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the MEG internal and external prices, profits, and other indicators changed. The basis for 09 was around +82 [2]. - Device Changes: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton device restarted, and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. - Market Outlook: After experiencing the inventory reduction stage, the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited, showing a sideways pattern [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: The spot price was around 6933, and the market basis was around 07 + 10. The prices of related products such as cotton - polyester staple fiber also changed [2]. - Device Changes: Fujian Jinlun restarted, and the start - up rate increased to 95.1% [2]. - Market Outlook: There are production reduction plans, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [2]. Natural Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From June 1 to June 23, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Thai glue, Shanghai full - latex, and 20 - number glue, changed. The daily and weekly changes of different varieties were different [2]. - Market Outlook: With stable inventory and a rebound in Thai cup rubber price, the strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene and Related Products - Price and Index Changes: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS changed, and the profits of domestic products also fluctuated [2]. - Start - up Rate Changes: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends over time [2].