Report Information - Report Date: June 24, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Team Members: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market of US soybean futures contracts is currently oscillating, with the main contract at 1060 cents. After the positive news about US soybean oil, the US soybean price rebounded last week and then gradually turned to oscillation. The biodiesel policy is relatively positive for US soybean crushing, but there is still uncertainty due to an upcoming hearing in early July. The market is temporarily digesting the positive news. In terms of exports, as the US soybean marketing year is approaching its end, last week's weekly export data was good but had limited impact. The market is gradually entering the weather - sensitive period. New - season soybean planting is in progress, with most soybeans in the emergence stage. Rainfall is unevenly distributed in the producing areas. Although the new excellent - rate has decreased compared to before, it is still at a medium level. Considering that soybeans are only in the emergence stage, there is currently no topic for weather speculation. The supply - demand pattern of US soybeans has improved, but the international soybean supply is still sufficient. Under the interweaving of multiple and short factors, the external market will oscillate in the short term, waiting for weather guidance [6]. - Domestic soybean meal rebounded last week and then declined. Since June, soybean meal sales have been good. When the price is low, downstream buyers are willing to make some safety purchases, but it is difficult to see continuous large - scale purchases when the price rises. The price of domestic soybean meal will still be mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. In terms of futures operations, there may be pressure for profit - taking in the short - term rebound. However, based on the potential of US weather - related topics and the expectation of higher costs for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious bullishness after corrections. The risk factors are the improvement of weather and tariff conditions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: For the soybean meal 2507 contract, the previous settlement price was 2907, the opening price was 2911, the highest price was 2912, the lowest price was 2857, the closing price was 2872, with a decline of 35 and a decline rate of - 1.20%. The trading volume was 36,635, the open interest was 108,255, and the open interest decreased by 16,064. For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3074, the highest price was 3076, the lowest price was 3021, the closing price was 3037, with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of - 1.07%. The trading volume was 1,158,175, the open interest was 2,341,727, and the open interest increased by 2,195. For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3107, the opening price was 3108, the highest price was 3113, the lowest price was 3059, the closing price was 3074, with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of - 1.06%. The trading volume was 69,842, the open interest was 588,107, and the open interest increased by 10,520 [6]. - External Market: The US soybean futures contracts are oscillating. After the positive news of US soybean oil, the price rebounded last week and then oscillated. The biodiesel policy is positive for US soybean crushing, but there is uncertainty due to the upcoming hearing. The export data is good but has limited impact as the marketing year is ending. New - season planting is in progress, with uneven rainfall. The excellent - rate is at a medium level, and there is currently no weather - related speculation topic. The external market will oscillate in the short term, waiting for weather guidance [6]. - Domestic Market: Domestic soybean meal rebounded last week and then declined. Sales in June have been good, with downstream buyers making safety purchases at low prices. The price will be mainly determined by imported soybean costs. In futures operations, short - term rebounds may face profit - taking pressure, and fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious bullishness after corrections, with risks related to weather and tariffs [6]. 3.2 Industry News - According to the USDA export sales report, as of the week ending June 12, US soybean export sales increased by a net of 614,700 tons, better than expected. US soybean export sales for the current marketing year increased by a net of 539,500 tons, a 779% increase from the previous week and a 204% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The market previously expected a net increase of 0 tons. US soybean export sales for the next marketing year increased by a net of 75,200 tons. The market previously expected a net increase of 0 - 200,000 tons. US soybean exports for shipment were 406,100 tons, a 10% decrease from the previous week and a 33% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [7]. - The monthly report released by the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food of Argentina shows that the estimated planting area of soybeans in Argentina for the 2024/25 season is 17.8 million hectares, a 0.6% increase from last month's estimate and a 7.2% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean production for the 2024/25 season is 49.9 million tons, a 1.8% increase from last month's estimate and a 3.5% increase from the previous year [9].
建信期货豆粕日报-20250624
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-24 02:36