建信期货工业硅日报-20250624

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon has stopped falling and stabilized, but the supply-demand imbalance has not significantly improved. With high supply and high inventory limiting the upside and cost and current price providing support, the market has reached a weak balance in the short term and will continue to operate weakly [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,420 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%, with a trading volume of 292,932 lots and an open interest of 303,119 lots, a net decrease of 2,437 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, with the price center of 553 at 8,300 yuan/ton and that of 421 at 8,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The supply of industrial silicon has been increasing for 4 consecutive weeks, with a weekly output of 76,600 tons in the third week of June and a monthly output exceeding 320,000 tons. The demand remains unchanged, with domestic demand at 260,000 tons and monthly exports at 50,000 tons. The spot and futures inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, but the continuous cancellation of futures warehouse receipts provides support. The market is expected to continue its weak operation [4]. 2. Market News - On June 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 54,184 lots, a net decrease of 439 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, the export volume of industrial silicon in April 2025 was 60,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.19%. The overall overseas market is relatively stable [5].