建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures prices opened low, fluctuated, and weakened, dampening market trading sentiment. New maintenance is limited, and the loss of equipment maintenance has decreased. Domestic supply shows an increasing trend. The downstream industry has entered the traditional off - season, with a significant lack of new orders. Due to high raw material prices and weak downstream profits, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is difficult to improve significantly. The Middle East situation is changeable, and the cost - driven logic still supports polyolefins in the short term, but the downstream demand is difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastic and PP continues to weaken. Once the geopolitical risk premium fades, polyolefins face the pressure of falling from high levels [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market Performance: Lian su L2509 opened low, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7444 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with a trading volume of 420,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 7,189 to 477,335 lots. PP's main contract closed at 7262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan, a decline of 0.08%, and the positions decreased by 6,373 lots to 488,500 lots [3][4]. - Supply - side Situation: New maintenance is limited, and the loss of equipment maintenance has decreased. The 500,000 - ton/year fourth - line of PP Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is planned to be put into production on June 19, and domestic supply shows an increasing trend [4]. - Demand - side Situation: The downstream industry has entered the traditional off - season, with a significant lack of new orders. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of terminal projects has slowed down. Due to high raw material prices and weak downstream profits, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is difficult to improve significantly [4]. - Market Outlook: The Middle East situation is changeable, and the cost - driven logic still supports polyolefins in the short term, but the downstream demand is difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastic and PP continues to weaken. Once the geopolitical risk premium fades, polyolefins face the pressure of falling from high levels [4]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory Situation: On June 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 810,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 9.46%. The inventory in the same period last year was 780,000 tons [5]. - PE Market: The PE market price rose steadily. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,380 - 7,600 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,430 - 7,850 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,550 - 7,800 yuan/ton [5]. - PP Market: The PP market still showed an upward trend, with cost support remaining. Traders' offer centers moved up, but downstream sentiment was cautious, and the intention to enter the market was not high. The actual transaction volume was limited, and the transactions focused on the lower prices after negotiation. The mainstream price of North China drawn wire in the morning was 7,160 - 7,270 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,240 - 7,330 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,170 - 7,330 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including two - oil inventory (in tons), two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate (%), L - PP price difference (in yuan/ton), crude oil futures main contract settlement price (in US dollars/ton), L basis (in yuan/ton), and PP basis (in yuan/ton). The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [9][13][16].