摩根士丹利：中国洞察-坚守主线，备战暑期消费热潮

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on the long-term structural story of the Chinese equity market, suggesting a balanced approach with both tech/growth and cash return exposure [2][17]. Core Insights - Market volatility is expected to rise in the near term due to several upcoming global trade and tariff events, which could dampen market risk appetite [3][9]. - The report highlights a normalization trend in MSCI China's earnings results, predicting that the 2Q results will be in line with expectations, but warns of potential skepticism in the second half of 2025 [10][11]. - There is a rising trend in return on equity (ROE) driven by regulatory reforms and corporate governance improvements, alongside a shift towards high-quality large-cap tech and financial companies [19]. - The report anticipates a gradual return of global capital to China's market over the next 6-12 months, driven by diversification needs amid potential USD weakness [17][21]. Summary by Sections Upcoming Events - Key dates include July 9, marking the expiration of a tariff pause, and August 12, which signifies the end of a China-specific tariff pause, both of which could lead to increased market uncertainty [3][9]. - The report notes that the upcoming 2Q results season may reignite concerns over earnings, particularly as it coincides with tariff negotiations [10][11]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining exposure to high-quality tech and Internet companies with strong AI and R&D capabilities, while also considering dividend yield plays [21]. - It suggests that the structural improvements in the Chinese equity market identified since 2H2024 remain intact, with potential for fund inflows [16][17]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends removing Pop Mart (9992.HK) from the focus list due to regulatory concerns and adding PICC P&C (2328.HK) for its attractive yield and resilience during market volatility [13].