摩根士丹利：中国思考-尽管关税缓和，通缩仍在持续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast for China at 4.5% for 2025, indicating a stable outlook despite lingering deflationary pressures [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariffs have de-escalated, challenges remain, particularly with persistent deflation expected to last for 15 quarters from Q2 2023 to Q4 2026 [4][5]. - A supplementary fiscal package of RMB 0.5-1 trillion is anticipated in Q4 2025 to support infrastructure and key sectors, reflecting a shift towards a consumption-centric stimulus approach [12][10]. - The report outlines three scenarios: a base case with lingering deflation, an upside scenario with continued tariff de-escalation, and a downside scenario with tariff re-escalation [12]. Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is projected at 4.5% for 2025, with a slight decline to 4.2% in 2026 under the base case scenario [12]. - The GDP deflator is expected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures, with estimates of -0.9% for 2025 and -0.7% for 2026 [12]. Tariff Analysis - The report assumes that US average tariffs on China will remain around 40%, with potential escalations still possible [13][14]. - China's export growth is expected to remain robust in Q2 2025 before declining in the second half of the year [15]. Domestic Stimulus and Policy Response - The focus of domestic stimulus will be on front-loading the announced RMB 2 trillion stimulus in the first three quarters of 2025, with a supplementary budget expected to be delayed until Q4 2025 [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from supply-centric policies to more consumption-driven strategies to address economic imbalances [70]. Consumption and Social Welfare - Consumption improvement has been policy-driven, but underlying momentum remains weak due to a sluggish job market [44]. - The report discusses the fragmented and unbalanced social welfare system in China, highlighting the need for reforms to enhance social safety nets [89][90]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is still too high relative to demand, with a need for structural reforms to address overcapacity issues [67][68]. - The report indicates that corporate pricing power remains subdued, with improvements in industrial profit driven by volume and cost reductions rather than pricing power [56]. RMB Outlook - The report forecasts mild appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with expectations of USDCNY reaching 7.15 by the end of 2025 [102][106]. - It also discusses the PBoC's plans for RMB internationalization and the establishment of a digital yuan international operations center in Shanghai [107][119].