广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250624

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market for PX is supported in the short - term due to geopolitical factors and supply - demand tightness, but may be dragged down by downstream production cuts and weak terminal demand. PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are expected to be affected by similar factors, and their prices will fluctuate with the cost side. For polyolefins, PP is expected to be under pressure while PE has a slight improvement in fundamentals. PVC and caustic soda have their own supply - demand contradictions, and the current market trends are complex. Urea's market is under pressure from high supply and weak demand. Crude oil prices have fallen due to the decline in geopolitical risk premiums and demand concerns. Methanol's supply and demand situation is complex with uncertainties in overseas supply and weak domestic demand. Benzene - ethylene is expected to be weak due to supply increases and demand decreases [2][25][34][39][43][46][53]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - Prices and Cash Flows: On June 23, most polyester product prices showed minor changes. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 0.7%, and its cash - flow decreased by 59.7%. PX - related prices also had fluctuations, with CFR China PX down by 0.1%. The prices of upstream products like Brent crude oil (August) decreased by 8.39% [2]. - 开工率: Asian PX, PTA, and polyester comprehensive开工率 decreased, while MEG comprehensive开工率 increased. For example, PTA开工率 decreased from 82.6% to 79.1%, and MEG comprehensive开工率 increased from 66.3% to 70.3% [2]. - Market Outlook: PX is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. Strategies include being cautiously bearish on PX09, observing the PX9 - 1 spread, and reducing positions in the PX - SC spread narrowing strategy at low levels [2]. Polyolefin Industry - Prices and Spreads: On June 23, L2601 and PP2601 closing prices increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as L2509 - 2601 increasing by 10.29% [25]. - 开工率 and Inventory: PP装置开工率 increased, while PE装置开工率 decreased slightly. PP inventory increased, and PE inventory decreased. For example, PP企业 inventory increased by 4.52%, and PE企业 inventory decreased by 1.83% [25]. - Market Outlook: PP is expected to be bearish in the short - term due to high production and poor marginal profits, while PE has a slight improvement in fundamentals but is still affected by the off - season [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Prices and Spreads: On June 23, the prices of PVC and caustic soda products mostly decreased. For example, the price of华东电石法PVC decreased by 0.6%, and the price of山东32%液碱折百价 decreased by 3.7% [30]. - 开工率 and Inventory: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed slightly. The inventory of caustic soda in some areas decreased, but the inventory of downstream alumina plants increased [32][34]. - Market Outlook: The current price of caustic soda is still searching for a bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see. PVC may have short - term price increases but is limited by long - term supply - demand contradictions, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [34]. Urea Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On June 23, most urea futures prices decreased. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.35%. Spot prices in different regions also showed declines, such as the price of Shandong (small - particle) urea decreasing by 3.85% [39]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the开工 rate of production enterprises decreased. The inventory in factories decreased, while the inventory in ports increased. Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export volume has decreased significantly [39]. - Market Outlook: The urea market is under pressure from high supply and weak demand. It is not recommended to go long at low levels prematurely, but opportunities in the option side with narrowing volatility can be grasped [39]. Crude Oil Industry - Prices and Spreads: On June 23, crude oil prices decreased significantly. Brent decreased by 8.39%, and WTI decreased by 7.22%. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as Brent M1 - M3 decreasing by 50.34% [43]. - Market Outlook: Crude oil prices have fallen due to the decline in geopolitical risk premiums and demand concerns. In the short - term, the market volatility may decrease, but geopolitical risks still exist. It is recommended to wait for the situation to become clearer [43]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: On June 23, methanol futures prices decreased. MA2601 decreased by 0.76%, and MA2509 decreased by 0.99%. The inventory of methanol decreased, and the开工 rate of some downstream industries also decreased [46]. - Market Outlook: The overseas supply of methanol is uncertain, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the development of the Iranian situation and the actual parking rhythm of MTO [46]. Benzene - Ethylene Industry - Upstream Prices: On June 23, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil (August) decreased. The prices of pure benzene and ethylene - related products also had minor changes, with pure benzene - stone naphtha increasing by 0.7% [50]. - Benzene - Ethylene Prices and Inventory: The price of benzene - ethylene decreased slightly, and its inventory decreased. The profit of benzene - ethylene integration decreased significantly by 76.8% [51][53]. - Market Outlook: Benzene - ethylene is expected to be weak due to supply increases from upstream device resumptions and profit - driven production increases, and demand decreases from weak downstream profits and uncertain terminal demand [53].