《有色》日报-20250624

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given text. Core Views of the Report Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices have no clear and smooth trend. Fundamental realities limit price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices will likely fluctuate. Q3 may face pressure on the real demand side, and the US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. Aluminum prices are expected to have high - level wide - range oscillations, with the main reference range of 19600 - 20600 [4]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the mine - end growth rate fails to meet expectations and downstream consumption shows super - expected performance, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. In a pessimistic scenario, the price center may shift down. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach in the medium - to - long - term, with the main reference range of 21500 - 23000 [6]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to have a weakly oscillating adjustment, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upward price space [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly, with the main operating range of 12300 - 13000. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm [10]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but considering the pessimistic demand expectations, a short - selling approach can be taken at 260000 - 265000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 10.87%. The import loss widened to 2522 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and imports increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes, with SHFE warehouse receipts dropping by 94.43% [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [4]. - Fundamental Data: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased slightly [4]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 21950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The import loss widened to 643 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamental Data: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased [6]. Nickel - Price and Spread: 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 119500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. The production cost of electrolytic nickel from different sources decreased to varying degrees [8]. - Fundamental Data: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35350 tons, and imports increased by 8.18% to 8832 tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes [8]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable [10]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons. Imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56% [10]. Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin dropped to 261800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [12]. - Fundamental Data: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons. Multiple inventories decreased [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 20050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of lithium - bearing ore decreased slightly [14]. - Fundamental Data: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72080 tons, and demand increased by 4.83% to 93960 tons. Total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].