广发期货《黑色》日报-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices rebounded, but the basis weakened. It is still the off - season for steel, with better - than - expected decline in off - season demand. High production has not been reduced, leading to inventory accumulation pressure. Weekly SMM data shows a decline in weekly steel exports. Steel is in a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. Recent raw material rebounds support the upward shift of the finished product price center. Rebound - biased short operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports is expected to remain at a high level. The demand for hot metal increased slightly last week, and the profitability of steel mills remained stable. However, terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, and there are uncertainties in export and overseas economic changes. Port and steel mill inventories increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be considered bearish in the medium - to - long term. The price range may shift down to 670 - 720 [3]. Coke - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot was weak. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, and there may be further cuts, but a phased bottom is emerging. Supply tightened marginally due to environmental protection and maintenance. Demand has rigid support from hot metal, but the hot metal output is on a downward trend. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was stable. Domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilizing, with some coal types having price rebounds. Supply decreased in some regions due to environmental protection and accidents. Imported coal has different situations, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal import profits inverting. Demand from coking and downstream industries has some resilience, and there are signs of recovery in restocking demand. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand continued to weaken, and spot prices were weak. Factory inventories decreased but were still high. Iron water demand increased slightly, and there are uncertainties in terminal demand. Non - steel demand has some short - term improvement, and exports may maintain some resilience. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, with restarts mainly in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Demand is weak in the off - season. Manganese ore shipments were basically flat globally, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventories decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Thread steel spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged, while futures prices increased slightly. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices showed mixed changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter - produced thread steel in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coil and thread steel in different regions increased [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 0.2% to 242.2 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 868.5 tons, with thread steel production increasing by 2.2% and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 0.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.2% to 1338.9 tons, with thread steel inventory decreasing by 1.3% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 5.6%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased by 0.4%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 3.4% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the 09 - contract basis of most powders decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.2%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the price indexes of new - exchange 62% Fe and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 8.6% week - on - week, and the global shipment volume decreased by 4.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume increased by 4.1%, and the national monthly hot metal and crude steel output increased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.1%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coke remained unchanged, and the 01 - contract price increased by 0.9%. The 09 - contract basis and the J09 - J01 spread decreased [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% [6]. Inventory - Total coke inventory decreased by 1.9%, with coking plant and steel mill inventories decreasing [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 9.0% [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coking coal increased by 1.5%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.7%. The 09 - contract basis and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs decreased by 0.1%, and the warehouse - pick - up prices of some domestic coal types remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 8.8%, and the coking coal inventories of coking plants and steel mills had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 0.8%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price increases. The SF - SM main contract spread was 22.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes. The export price remained unchanged [7]. Supply - The production enterprise's operating rate increased by 4.3%, and the weekly output increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 0.1%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price decreases [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes [7]. Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment was basically flat, domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferromanganese increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese from steel - making and non - steel industries has uncertainties [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [7].