大越期货原油早报-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, causing a significant market decline. Although Iran launched a missile attack on a US base in Qatar, it informed the US in advance, not escalating the situation and reducing geopolitical concerns. The short - term sentiment has cooled significantly, with the international and domestic crude oil prices falling. The short - term trading range is between 518.6 - 530, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and Iran attacked a US base in Qatar but did not escalate the situation, with a neutral impact [3]. - Basis: On June 23, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $76.01 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $75.73 per barrel, with a basis of 2.06 yuan/barrel, and the spot was at par with the futures, showing a neutral situation [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 billion barrels in the week ending June 13, and the EIA inventory decreased by 11.473 billion barrels in the same period, with a decrease in Cushing area inventory, and the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.029 billion barrels as of June 23, showing a bullish trend [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the price was above the average, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - Main Position: As of June 17, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, showing a bullish trend [3]. - Expectation: After Trump's announcements, the market sentiment cooled down. The short - term trading range is 518.6 - 530, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump announced a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, with Iran starting the cease - fire first and Israel following 12 hours later, and the war to be considered over in 24 hours. Iran's senior officials confirmed the agreement. Meanwhile, there were reports of explosions in Iranian cities, and Iran's foreign minister stated that Iran did not seek to escalate tensions but was prepared for US aggression. Some Gulf countries closed and then reopened their airspace, and Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia condemned Iran's attacks [5]. - Fed's Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman said the time for a rate cut seemed to be approaching, and Chicago Fed President Goolsby said the impact of tariff hikes on the economy was relatively mild compared to expectations [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - Bearish Factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and Iran and Israel are approaching a cease - fire [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed, with Brent crude oil down 3.37 (-4.27%), WTI crude oil down 0.54 (-0.73%), SC crude oil up 13.80 (2.47%), and Oman crude oil up 1.61 (2.13%) [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of various crude oil varieties changed, with UK Brent Dtd down 2.06 (-2.56%), WTI down 1.76 (-2.33%), Oman crude oil up 0.13 (0.17%), Shengli crude oil up 0.65 (0.88%), and Dubai crude oil down 0.02 (-0.03%) [9]. - Inventory Data: The API inventory decreased by 10.133 billion barrels in the week ending June 13, and the EIA inventory decreased by 11.473 billion barrels in the same period [3][10][14]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: The net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased from 191,941 on June 10 to 231,048 on June 17, with an increase of 39,107 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: The net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased from 196,922 on June 10 to 273,175 on June 17, with an increase of 76,253 [19].