瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash has started to converge this week, and the basis convergence trading may continue. The decline of futures prices is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply side shows no significant changes, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, indicating obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The industry's overall profit is poor and continues to decline, and the subsequent resumption of production may further weaken. The demand side is currently not optimistic, with real - estate data in May showing a significant decline, and demand is expected to further weaken. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and maintain a short - selling mindset on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1161 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1015 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1569278 lots, up 84429 lots; glass main contract position is 1472003 lots, up 30129 lots. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 307826, down 34580; glass top 20 net position is - 245913, up 29274. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3863 tons, down 150 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged. Soda ash September - January contract spread is 7 yuan, down 5 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 51 yuan, up 4 yuan. Soda ash basis is 46 yuan, up 9 yuan; glass basis is 41 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1207 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1285 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Shahe glass sheets are 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 86.46%, up 1.56 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, down 0.08 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, down 0.02 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 223, down 1. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 175.59 million tons, up 2.92 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6988.7 million heavy boxes, up 20.2 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 18385.14 million square meters, up 2737.29 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Chen Maobo said that the adjustment range of the Hong Kong property market at the current level is not large. In the first quarter, there were 527 global luxury home transactions, with 42 in Hong Kong ranking sixth. It is expected that luxury home transactions in Hong Kong will increase in 2025, and investors are considering re - entering the market. The number of second - hand village house sales contract registrations in the New Territories of Hong Kong in the first 5 months was about 602, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. Vanke extended the term of a 1.217 billion yuan loan from Ping An Bank for 2 years. Three residential - related land parcels in Chengdu were sold for 1.089 billion yuan. Three residential land parcels in Hangzhou were sold at the reserve price with a total transaction amount of 1.167 billion yuan. Hainan plans to update 1708 old elevators in residential communities this year. A foreclosed property in Shanghai was sold for over 100 million yuan, which insiders considered a "bargain price". The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, visited Xiongan New Area and emphasized using new technologies to build "good houses" [2]. Macro - level - As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [2]. Soda Ash Analysis - In terms of supply, the domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, and production has risen, but the overall growth rate has slowed down. The market supply remains abundant, and domestic soda ash profits have declined but are still positive. It is expected that the production growth rate of soda ash will further slow down, and subsequent cold repairs are likely to increase. In terms of demand, there is no significant change in glass production lines, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, showing obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The demand for photovoltaic glass shows signs of decline, which is expected to continue, resulting in negative feedback on the demand for soda ash. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory has increased, mainly due to increased production, and is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. Glass Analysis - On the supply side, there are no obvious changes in glass production lines, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, indicating obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The industry's overall profit is poor and continues to decline, and the subsequent resumption of production may further weaken. Before the profit of the coal - based production method turns negative, there will be no significant changes in the supply side. On the demand side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, with real - estate data in May showing a significant decline, and demand is expected to further weaken. Downstream deep - processing orders have declined, and procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The increase in inventory of automotive glass factories is difficult to offset the weak demand related to real - estate, and the demand for photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure. This week, the basis remains within the normal range, and subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations. It is expected that the rebound height and strength will be relatively limited [2].