瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250624

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,640 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, up 41 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 149,902 lots, down 7,527 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper were 3,115 lots, up 4,480 lots. The LME copper inventory was 95,875 tons, down 3,325 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 22,425 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,485 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 61 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 37.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was 274.99 dollars/ton, up 141.63 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 44.78 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,780 yuan/metal ton, up 100 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 69,480 yuan/metal ton, up 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 2,040 billion yuan, up 631.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,235,000 million pieces, up 68,000 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.47%, down 0.13%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.91%, down 0.27%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.79%, up 0.0019%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.05, up 0.0053 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 36.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 10.8 billion kilowatts, an increase of 56.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 5.7 billion kilowatts, an increase of 23.1%. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance met with the delegation of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. Many places have broadened the proposed investment fields of special bonds. The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June remained stable at 52, the highest since February. The Fed's vice - chair said that a rate cut might be supported as early as July [2].