Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the recent geopolitical factors in the Middle East causing an increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the rise in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually increasing. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end - users' resistance to high prices is obvious. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. - With the cease - fire between Israel and Palestine and the decline in crude oil prices, the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 345 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position was 10,317, a decrease of 557. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,750 yuan/ton, and that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,700 yuan/ton, and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,750 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 245 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 71.48 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.53 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan was 470 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 840 US dollars/ton, and the CFR China price of butadiene was 1,100 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. WTI crude oil was 68.51 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 28,400 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.79 million tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 1,163 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 700 tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 610 tons to 6,820 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.29%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 65.48%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1,182 million pieces, a decrease of 126 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 5,415 million pieces, a decrease of 124 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. - In May 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].
瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20250624
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-24 10:22