瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250624

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current lithium carbonate market shows a situation of oversupply, with continuously declining spot transaction prices. The supply side has sufficient available goods and large inventory pressure, while the demand side is weak, and the downstream cathode material enterprises adopt a cautious procurement strategy. The terminal new energy market demand has not improved substantially, and the inventory at each link of the industrial chain remains high. [2] - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly rising. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines below the 0 - axis and the red column is expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 60,700 yuan/ton, up 1,580 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 26,827 hands, up 170 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 343,564 hands, down 13,390 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 440 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 26,779 hands/ton, down 1,014 hands. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 59,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 800 yuan/ton, down 1,630 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 689 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,075 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,548 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles. [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 129,888 contracts, up 6,399 contracts; the total put position is 51,472 contracts, up 5,389 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 39.63%, up 2.3105 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.23%, up 0.0048 percentage points. [2] Industry News - Xiaomi will release its first SUV YU7 car on the evening of June 26, along with other new products. [2] - BYD offers a rebate of 666 yuan per vehicle to dealers, with the rebate scale exceeding 1 billion yuan. It also responds that the rumor of equipping the Seal model with solid - state batteries is false. [2] - The All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce calls on automobile manufacturers to optimize the rebate policy and shorten the rebate settlement period. [2] - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were about 21,146 tons, a 25% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease. The import average price was about 9,392 US dollars/ton, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease from April. Exports were 287 tons, a 156% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase, mainly exported to Japan and India. [2]