建信期货多晶硅日报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The most significant contradiction in the fundamentals lies in the fact that production cuts on the supply side have not yet been implemented, but the "rush to install" for terminal installations has ended, and the pressure from the terminal is gradually being transmitted upstream. Although the start - up of battery cells has not declined rapidly, since April, battery cells have seen a significant accumulation of inventory, and downstream buyers are no longer willing to pay a premium for purchases. The spot price has fallen again, fulfilling the previous bearish expectation. The futures market is currently experiencing a temporary rebound, but it has not yet emerged from the bearish trend, and investors can wait for the next high point of the rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract rebounded with fluctuations. The closing price of PS2508 was 31,085 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.48%. The trading volume was 171,969 lots, and the open interest was 72,286 lots, with a net increase of 5,897 lots [4]. - Future Outlook: The polycrystalline silicon output in June is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month, and the monthly output will slightly increase to over 100,000 tons, which can meet the demand for 50GW of downstream battery cells [4]. 3.2 Market News - As of June 24, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - The transaction price range of N - type re -投料 was 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon was 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 33,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.90% [5]. - In May 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations were approximately 92GW, a year - on - year increase of 383.2% and a month - on - month increase of over 100%, setting a new high for the same period in history. From January to May, the newly added domestic photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 150% [5]. - As of the end of May, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9% [5]. - From January to May, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1,249 hours, 132 hours less than the same period last year. The investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises nationwide was 257.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and the investment in grid projects was 204 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [5].