建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250625

Report Information - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply-demand situation in the egg market remains oversupplied, and the prices of each contract are at historically low levels. The recent price rebound is considered a short - term phenomenon and is difficult to form a trend. However, as time passes, the market's purchasing sentiment may gradually improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space of the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, with the possibility of slow declines and sharp rises. Continuous attention should be paid to the intensity of chicken culling [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For the 2507 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2881, the opening price was 2837, the highest price was 2853, the lowest price was 2817, the closing price was 2819, with a decline of 62 and a decline rate of 2.15%. The trading volume was 24,186, the open interest was 38,772, and the open interest decreased by 2084 [7]. - For the 2508 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3579, the opening price was 3543, the highest price was 3570, the lowest price was 3530, the closing price was 3551, with a decline of 28 and a decline rate of 0.78%. The trading volume was 131,572, the open interest was 236,582, and the open interest decreased by 400 [7]. - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3637, the opening price was 3622, the highest price was 3645, the lowest price was 3611, the closing price was 3642, with an increase of 5 and an increase rate of 0.14%. The trading volume was 45,989, the open interest was 143,203, and the open interest increased by 4600 [7]. - Analysis and Suggestions: The national egg price is stable today. The average price in the main production areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 08 contract declined by 0.78%. The egg price stabilized and rebounded last week. After the expectation of the plum - rain season was priced in advance, the low price was realized earlier. Due to continuous losses, farmers accelerated the culling of chickens, reducing the supply pressure and leading to a recent price rebound. However, the oversupply situation remains the main theme. To see a continuous price rebound, it is necessary to see a continuous increase in culling or a decrease in the egg - laying rate due to high temperatures after the plum - rain season, which is difficult to achieve in the short term. As time goes by, the market's purchasing sentiment may improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space of the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, and continuous attention should be paid to the culling intensity [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an increasing trend. As of the end of May, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, showing a certain degree of growth for 5 consecutive months, and a year - on - year increase of 7.2% compared with the same period last year [9]. - The monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises in May was about 44.98 million, slightly less than 46.99 million in April, and slightly higher than 44.54 million in the same period in 2024, ranking medium in the past 8 years [9]. - The national chicken culling volume in the first three weeks as of June 6 was 19.97 million, 21.02 million, and 19.53 million respectively. The culling volume has gradually recovered since May, showing a month - on - month increase for 4 consecutive weeks, with a slight decline this week, and the absolute value is slightly higher than the average of the previous three years. As of June 12, the average age of culled chickens was 512 days, 3 days earlier than last week and 22 days earlier than last month [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents figures on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China (in billions) and the profit of egg - chicken farming (in yuan per chicken), but no specific data analysis is provided [10].