建信期货铁矿石日评-20250625

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, steel mills are still in the process of production cuts, but due to their weak willingness to control losses and production, and the support of downstream demand under the effect of export rush, the production cut pace is expected to be tortuous, and the iron ore price will generally show a volatile and weak state with short - term support at the bottom [12]. - In the medium and long term, the real estate investment is still declining at a rate of about 10%, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the United States, the uncertainty of exports will gradually appear in the data. The high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the gradual release of the incremental supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "terminal demand decline - steel enterprise profit narrowing - steel enterprise production cut - iron ore price trend decline" may appear in the second half of the year [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: On June 24, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. After a sharp decline at the opening, it oscillated, and then fell again in the afternoon, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. Other steel futures contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [7]. - Spot Market: On June 24, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were lowered by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value turning down and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract has been expanding for two consecutive trading days [9]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Short - term: Although steel mills are in the process of production cuts, due to good profit levels, the production cut pace is tortuous. Last week, the daily average pig iron output rebounded, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate both increased, indicating strong support on the demand side of iron ore. The supply of iron ore is expected to be loose until mid - July [12]. - Medium - and Long - term: Real estate investment is declining, and the uncertainty of steel exports will increase after the 90 - day suspension period in the United States. The high steel production may not be sustainable, and the supply of iron ore will increase after the Xipo project is put into production, which may lead to a decline in iron ore prices [13]. 3.3 Industry News - In May 2025, China's coal imports continued to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. The import volume dropped to 3604.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 178.5 million tons (4.7%) and a year - on - year decrease of 777.6 million tons (17.7%) [14]. - On June 24, local time, the Israeli military claimed to have detected Iran launching missiles at Israel after the cease - fire agreement took effect, and the Israeli defense minister ordered a strong response. Iran denied the claim [14]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipping volume of Brazilian and Australian iron ore, the arrival volume at 45 ports, etc. [19][23][30]