LPG早报-20250625

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, with the expectation of increased supply, the chemical demand is expected to rise, which may boost the market in Shandong, while the markets in East and South China are more likely to fluctuate. The geopolitical situation has significantly escalated, and the US attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, so cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - From June 1 to June 24, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG increased from 4660 to 4695, with a daily change of 45 on June 24 [1]. - The prices of propane CFR South, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, and CP forecast prices also fluctuated, and there were daily changes such as - 25 for MB propane spot on June 24 [1]. - The paper import profit showed a change of 248 on June 24, and the主力基差 changed by 319 [1]. Market Analysis - The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4667. The PP price dropped significantly, FEI and CP prices tumbled, PDH production profit improved, and the FEI production cost is higher than that of CP. The PG futures market declined significantly, and the 07 - 09 spread remained at 99 [1]. - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. Civil gas prices first rose and then fell due to continuous disturbances in international supply, but sufficient domestic supply and weak demand. The PG futures market strengthened unilaterally due to geopolitical impacts, the 07 contract basis weakened to 80 (- 141), and the spreads (07 - 08 and 07 - 09) weakened significantly [1]. - The outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread continued to strengthen, FEI - MB strengthened slightly, while FEI - CP and MB - CP weakened [1]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals were delayed, chemical demand increased slightly, port inventories and storage capacity ratios decreased, factory inventories were basically flat, and external sales were basically unchanged [1]. - Chemical demand was supported, PDH and MTBE operating rates increased, and the alkylation rate was basically flat. Many PDH plants are expected to increase their loads in the future, which will drive up the PDH operating rate [1]. - The number of registered warrants decreased by 647 to 8358 hands, mainly due to a decrease of 270 in Jinneng Chemical and 377 in Shanghai Yuchi [1].