农产品早报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, corn spot prices are expected to remain strong due to low domestic inventory and weakening wheat substitution profit. In the long - term, be vigilant about the risk of falling prices in the far - month due to increased imports [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, reduced raw materials and high prices lead to lower procurement willingness, supporting a rebound in starch prices. In the long - term, weak downstream demand restricts price increases, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar season has mixed production indicators, and the market trades on high sugar - making ratios and production increase expectations, pressuring raw sugar. Domestically, supported by import restrictions and high basis [4]. - Cotton: High production this year creates strong hedging pressure, limiting price increases. Without new drivers, prices may decline if demand worsens or there are macro risks; otherwise, they will oscillate [7]. - Eggs: After April, farmers' willingness to cull hens increased. Recently, egg prices rebounded slightly, and the culling pace slowed. After the plum - rain season, supply reduction and demand improvement may drive prices up [15]. - Apples: There is a slight expected production reduction in the new season. Consumption is at the end of the peak season, and current inventory is low. However, seasonal fruits may affect market share. Monitor the realization of production reduction expectations [19]. - Pigs: Spot prices are in a supply - demand game. Futures contracts reflect cycle and seasonal expectations. The key is the inventory reduction path, and the sustainability of the recent price rebound needs attention [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From June 18 - 24, corn prices in some regions were stable, with the basis increasing by 19 and import profit by 25. Starch basis increased by 17, and processing profit increased by 7 [2]. - Analysis: Short - term strength in corn spot prices due to low inventory and weakening wheat substitution. Starch prices are supported in the short - term but restricted by weak downstream demand in the long - term [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From June 18 - 24, spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 1. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2572 [4]. - Analysis: International market influenced by Brazilian production indicators, domestic market supported by import restrictions and high basis [4]. Cotton - Price Data: From June 18 - 24, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 55, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 74. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 22, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 58 [7]. - Analysis: High production restricts price increases, and prices may decline or oscillate depending on demand and macro factors [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From June 18 - 24, egg prices in some regions were stable, with the basis decreasing by 34. The price of substitute products had little change, and the price of pigs increased by 0.21 [14]. - Analysis: Farmers' culling willingness increased after April. Recent price rebound and slowed culling. Post - plum - rain season, supply - demand balance may drive prices up [15]. Apples - Price Data: From June 18 - 24, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples was stable, and the basis of different contracts decreased to varying degrees [18]. - Analysis: Slight expected production reduction in the new season. Low current inventory but affected by seasonal fruits. Monitor production reduction realization [19]. Pigs - Price Data: From June 18 - 24, spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 10 [22]. - Analysis: Spot prices in supply - demand game. Futures reflect cycle and seasonality. Key is inventory reduction path and rebound sustainability [22].