沪锌期货早报-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view is that the previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and rebound, closing with a positive line, increasing trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with more long - position increases. The market may oscillate and strengthen in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the short - term moving average, and the moving average support gradually strengthened. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and entered the strong area; the trend indicator declined, the long - position strength increased, the short - position strength increased, and the advantage of the short - position strength decreased. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai zinc ZN2508 will oscillate and strengthen [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, with a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, global zinc plate production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2]. - The basis was +250 with the spot price at 22,170, also showing a bullish situation [2]. - On June 24, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,450 tons to 123,450 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 248 tons to 7,471 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions were net long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [2]. 3.2 Futures Market - On June 24, the zinc futures of different delivery months on the futures exchange showed different price changes. For example, for the 2508 contract, the previous settlement was 21,735, the opening price was 21,875, the highest price was 22,030, the lowest price was 21,825, the closing price was 21,920, with an increase of 185 [3]. 3.3 Spot Market - On June 24, the prices of various zinc - related products in the domestic main spot markets changed. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shiliu was 22,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 Inventory Statistics - From May 29 to June 23, the inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets changed. The total inventory on June 23 was 58,200 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons compared with the previous Thursday and an increase of 1,200 tons compared with the previous Monday [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On June 24, the total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 7,471 tons, a decrease of 248 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 98 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 150 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On June 24, the LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons compared with the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 89,875 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 33,575 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 27.20% [7]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Price - On June 24, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions increased by 170 yuan/ton, such as 16,980 yuan/ton in Jiyuan and 17,080 yuan/ton in Chenzhou [8]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On June 24, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters increased by 200 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,510 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Production - In May 2025, the production of refined zinc was 422,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.74%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.00%, and the planned production in June was 453,700 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On June 24, the processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions were stable, with small fluctuations. For example, the average processing fee in H was 3,600 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 50 US dollars/thousand tons [16]. 3.11 Futures Company Transaction and Position Ranking - For the zn2508 contract on June 24, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures with 53,276 lots (an increase of 20,812 lots), Guotai Junan with 52,441 lots (an increase of 26,168 lots), and Orient Futures with 40,715 lots (an increase of 15,717 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 12,508 lots (an increase of 267 lots), Guotai Junan with 8,219 lots (an increase of 2,682 lots), and Orient Futures with 8,072 lots (an increase of 3,384 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 12,804 lots (an increase of 31 lots), Orient Futures with 6,788 lots (an increase of 797 lots), and Guotai Junan with 6,526 lots (an increase of 961 lots) [17].