大越期货天胶早报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, rising domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is bullish, the inventory situation is neutral, the market trend is bearish, and the main positions are bearish. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply starting to increase, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is 185 with a spot price of 13850, showing a bullish signal. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral. The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the main net position is short with an increase in short positions, both bearish. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline. However, the external environment is bearish [4][6] Inventory - The inventory of the exchange has changed little recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has also changed little recently [14][17] Import - The import volume has seasonally declined [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, but tire production has reached a new high in the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32] Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (not for delivery) remained flat on June 20. The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8] Basis - The basis turned positive on June 24 [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant - to - decline spot prices [6] Bearish Factors - Increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6]