Report Information - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Report Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated, crude oil prices rose significantly, and high-sulfur fuel oil, with a large proportion of Iranian supply, performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, with the August - September spread at $7.5, and the basis also fluctuated. The domestic and overseas spreads of FU showed differentiation between near and far months, with the July contract dropping to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the September contract fluctuating around $8. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated. [4][5] - This week, land-based inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, and were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were at a moderate level. Iran and Iraq account for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunker fueling and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region, and cannot be used for physical delivery in the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipment volume will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. [5] - Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, the overseas market is running strongly, the domestic and overseas near-month spreads of FU are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. For the far-month contracts, attention should be paid to the impact of supply disruptions. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are high. [5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 457.84 | 481.08 | 464.95 | 460.60 | 413.51 | -47.09 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 497.59 | 517.59 | 508.06 | 509.41 | 466.22 | -43.19 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -1.57 | -1.07 | -1.73 | -2.41 | -1.97 | 0.44 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 707.10 | 764.51 | 728.36 | 713.74 | 642.12 | -71.62 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -209.51 | -246.92 | -220.30 | -204.33 | -175.90 | 28.43 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 19.64 | 24.87 | 22.22 | 26.31 | 21.22 | -5.09 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 39.75 | 36.51 | 43.11 | 48.81 | 52.71 | 3.90 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 478.90 | 480.47 | 478.09 | 471.10 | 427.90 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 484.42 | 487.41 | 487.09 | 481.07 | 436.97 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 538.95 | 542.99 | 544.13 | 540.67 | 501.16 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 93.34 | 96.69 | 96.50 | 93.65 | 85.76 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.93 | 0.26 | -0.27 | -0.98 | -0.54 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -151.77 | -172.52 | -169.97 | -152.34 | -133.46 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 486.91 | 485.32 | 479.12 | 475.90 | 431.62 | -44.28 | | FOB VLSFO | 548.13 | 550.77 | 550.33 | 549.45 | 508.57 | -40.88 | | 380 Basis | 7.55 | 4.65 | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.75 | -0.90 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Overseas Spread | 9.2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 0.7 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Overseas Spread | 20.0 | 20.4 | 16.2 | 18.8 | 21.1 | 2.3 | [3] Domestic FU Futures Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 3119 | 3154 | 3152 | 3180 | 2895 | -285 | | FU 05 | 3044 | 3068 | 3079 | 3100 | 2850 | -250 | | FU 09 | 3333 | 3369 | 3363 | 3385 | 3065 | -320 | | FU 01 - 05 | 75 | 86 | 73 | 80 | 45 | -35 | | FU 05 - 09 | -289 | -301 | -284 | -285 | -215 | 70 | | FU 09 - 01 | 214 | 215 | 211 | 205 | 170 | -35 | [3] Domestic LU Futures Prices | Type | 2025/06/18 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3733 | 3787 | 3766 | 3815 | 3500 | -315 | | LU 05 | 3531 | 3674 | 3687 | 3701 | 3421 | -280 | | LU 09 | 3886 | 3948 | 3917 | 3968 | 3629 | -339 | | LU 01 - 05 | 202 | 113 | 79 | 114 | 79 | -35 | | LU 05 - 09 | -355 | -274 | -230 | -267 | -208 | 59 | | LU 09 - 01 | 153 | 161 | 151 | 153 | 129 | -24 | [4]
燃料油早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-06-25 02:20