《农产品》日报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian palm oil market is under downward pressure due to the sharp decline in crude oil and the recovery of production. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is expected to fall further to the range of 8,150 - 8,250 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: International soybean oil prices are under pressure due to the expected decline in Indian imports and favorable crop weather in the US. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the factory sell - pressure is not strong, and the basis quote is supported [1]. Meal Industry - The bullish sentiment of US soybeans has been fully traded. With the improvement of weather expectations and the decline in oil prices, the market is weak. Domestic soybean inventory pressure is acceptable, and soybean meal inventory is still low. The short - term disk may follow the US soybeans to correct, but the decline is expected to be limited [3]. Corn Industry - The current corn supply varies with traders' strategies. In the short term, corn prices may correct due to increased arrivals and auction expectations, but in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand gap supports an upward trend. It is advisable to go long on dips [5]. Pig Industry - The current pig breeding still has profits, but the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term disk may be strong, but there is a risk of a decline in the 09 contract near delivery if the live inventory continues to be postponed [9][10]. Cotton Industry - The market driving force is still weak, with the downstream textile industry's开机 rate decreasing and finished product inventory increasing. However, the supply - side basis of old crops is still relatively strong. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. Sugar Industry - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. If there are no new negative factors, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. This week, it is expected to maintain bottom - range fluctuations between 5,650 - 5,800 [15]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is still sufficient. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, and may experience a slight decline later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - Soybean Oil: On June 24, the futures price of Y2509 was 7,606 yuan, down 1.60% from the previous day. The basis was 654 yuan, down 26 yuan. The inventory of factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend, and the estimated soybean arrival in July is about 11 million tons [1]. - Palm Oil: On June 24, the futures price of P2509 was 8,208 yuan, down 2.05%. The basis was 282 yuan, down 138 yuan. The import cost in Guangzhou Port in September was 8,737.7 yuan, down 1.80% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: On June 24, the futures price of OI2509 was 9,310 yuan, down 1.55%. The basis was 470 yuan, up 7 yuan [1]. Meal Industry - Soybean Meal: On June 24, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,037 yuan, down 0.98%. The basis was - 117 yuan, up 10 yuan [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, down 1.20%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,657 yuan, down 0.82%. The basis was - 107 yuan, down 9 yuan [3]. Corn Industry - Corn: On June 24, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2,389 yuan, down 0.79%. The basis was - 9 yuan, up 19 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 108 yuan, down 9 yuan [5]. - Corn Starch: The futures price of Corn Starch 2509 was 2,744 yuan, down 1.51%. The basis was - 24 yuan, up 42 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 24 yuan [5]. Pig Industry - Futures: On June 24, the price of the main contract was 13,550 yuan for the 2507 contract, up 0.74%, and 13,940 yuan for the 2509 contract, down 0.29%. The 7 - 9 spread was 390 yuan, down 140 yuan [9]. - Spot: The spot price in Henan was 14,550 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 14,900 yuan, up 100 yuan [9]. Cotton Industry - Futures: On June 24, the futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13,610 yuan, up 1.08%; the 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan, up 0.63%. The 9 - 1 spread was 25 yuan, up 60 yuan [13]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,767 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,883 yuan, down 0.07% [13]. Sugar Industry - Futures: On June 24, the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5,710 yuan, down 0.19%; the 2601 contract was 5,555 yuan, down 0.36%. The 1 - 9 spread was - 155 yuan, down 9 yuan [15]. - Spot: The spot price in Nanning was 6,040 yuan, down 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5,860 yuan, down 0.09% [15]. Egg Industry - Futures: On June 24, the price of the Egg 09 contract was 3,642 yuan, up 0.33%; the 07 contract was 2,819 yuan, down 1.33%. The 9 - 7 spread was 823 yuan, up 50 yuan [17]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price was 2.92 yuan per catty, down 0.24% [17].