Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, recognize the short - term support of structural squeeze on absolute prices, but focus on three possible fundamental changes in Q3, including the impact of S232 investigation, US copper inventory flow, and the weakening of some sectors [1] - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is seasonally weak in June, there is still a supply - demand gap, and pay attention to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] - For zinc, maintain the idea of short - allocation, hold long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities between months [3][4] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is average, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - For stainless steel, the fundamental situation is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] - For lead, it is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [9] - For tin, hold long positions cautiously in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - long term [11] - For industrial silicon, the spot price is expected to be under pressure, and in the long - term, it will mainly operate at the bottom anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [14] - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, and the price will be under upward pressure, and it will oscillate weakly in the medium - long term [16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Type Copper - Weekly changes:沪铜现货升贴水 decreased by 55,废精铜价差 increased by 100,上期所库存 decreased by 3103, etc [1] - Market situation: LME copper inventory fell below 100,000 tons for the first time this year, the cash - 3m spread continued to rise, but the 3m futures price did not rise, and the market sentiment was still anxious [1] Aluminum - Weekly changes: Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices all decreased by 110, domestic alumina price decreased by 17, etc [1] - Market situation: Supply increased slightly, demand was seasonally weak in June, there was a supply - demand gap, and inventory decreased gently from June to July [1] Zinc - Weekly changes: Spot升贴水 decreased by 30, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 200, etc [3] - Market situation: Zinc price fluctuated widely this week. Supply increased, demand weakened marginally, domestic social inventory oscillated, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear at the end of June [3] Nickel - Weekly changes:沪镍现货 price decreased by 650,金川升贴水 increased by 250, etc [6] - Market situation: Supply remained high, demand was weak, overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [6] Stainless Steel - Weekly changes: 304冷卷 price decreased by 75, 304热卷 price decreased by 100, etc [7] - Market situation: Supply decreased due to partial production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, cost remained stable, and inventory increased slightly [7] Lead - Weekly changes:现货升贴水 remained unchanged, Shanghai - Henan价差 remained unchanged, etc [9] - Market situation: Lead price rebounded from a low level. Supply was affected by multiple factors, demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 17100 next week [9] Tin - Weekly changes:现货进口收益 increased by 4745.70,现货出口收益 decreased by 4187.93, etc [10] - Market situation: Tin price fluctuated widely. Supply was affected by the situation in Myanmar, demand was limited, and it is expected to maintain a supply - demand dual - weak situation in the first half of the year [11] Industrial Silicon - Weekly changes: 421云南基差 decreased by 60, 421四川基差 decreased by 260, etc [14] - Market situation: Market start - up increased slightly, the basis strengthened rapidly, and the spot price is expected to be under pressure in the future [14] Lithium Carbonate - Weekly changes: SMM电碳价格 decreased by 50, SMM工碳价格 decreased by 50, etc [16] - Market situation: Lithium carbonate price decreased. Supply increased, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week [16]
永安期货有色早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-06-25 02:54