Report on Natural Rubber 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View In the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On June 24, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex increased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,850 yuan/ton, with a 0.36% increase. The full - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 335 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton, with a 223.33% increase. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton, with a 1.45% decrease [1]. - Inter - month Spread: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 870 yuan/ton, with a 3.57% decrease; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, with a 33.33% increase; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 890 yuan/ton, with a 2.30% increase [1]. - Fundamental Data: In April, Thailand's production decreased by 43,500 tons to 105,700 tons, with a 29.16% decrease; Indonesia's production decreased by 15,200 tons to 194,100 tons, with a 7.26% decrease; India's production decreased by 7,600 tons to 45,400 tons, with a 14.34% decrease; China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.31 percentage points to 78.29%, and that of full - steel tires increased by 4.24 percentage points to 65.48% [1]. - Inventory Change: The bonded area inventory increased by 1,410 tons to 606,975 tons, with a 0.23% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,620 tons to 32,256 tons, with a 7.51% decrease [1]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View For soda ash, the current oversupply situation is obvious, and there will be a further profit - reduction process. The previous photovoltaic resumption brought some demand, but the growth of photovoltaic capacity has slowed down. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions. For glass, the spot market is improving, but the demand will slow down in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050, and there is still pressure in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Price and Spread: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged on June 25. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,106 yuan/ton, with a 0.36% increase; the glass 2509 contract increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,015 yuan/ton, with a 0.79% increase [4]. - Soda Ash - related Price and Spread: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1,199 yuan/ton, with a 0.58% decrease; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 1,161 yuan/ton, with a 1.00% decrease [4]. - Supply Volume: As of June 20, the soda ash operating rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.90%, and the weekly production increased by 55,000 tons to 740,100 tons, with an 8.04% increase. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 1,000 tons to 155,700 tons, with a 0.70% decrease; the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1,000 tons to 98,990 tons, with a 1.00% decrease [4]. - Inventory: As of June 20, the glass factory warehouse increased by 1,923,000 weight - boxes to 69,685,000 weight - boxes, with a 2.84% increase. The soda ash factory warehouse increased by 62,000 tons to 1,686,300 tons, with a 3.82% increase; the soda ash delivery warehouse decreased by 20,000 tons to 327,100 tons, with a 5.87% decrease [4]. - Real Estate Data: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%; the construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%; the completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%; the sales area increased by 12.13 percentage points to - 1.55% [4]. Report on Log Futures 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The log futures were weak. The market is in a situation of weakening supply and demand during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The 07 contract has intense long - short competition around the delivery cost. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Price: On June 24, the log 2507 contract decreased by 12.5 yuan/cubic meter to 806.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 1.53% decrease; the log 2509 contract decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 794.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0.69% decrease; the log 2511 contract decreased by 1 yuan/cubic meter to 794 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0.13% decrease [5]. - Supply: In May, the port shipping volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1,955,000 cubic meters, with a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, with a 7.94% decrease [5]. - Inventory: As of June 20, the national log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters to 3,350,000 cubic meters, with a 2.90% decrease. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 1,990,000 cubic meters, with a 1.00% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 23,000 cubic meters to 1,109,900 cubic meters, with a 2.05% decrease [5]. - Demand: As of June 20, the daily average warehouse - out volume increased by 38,000 cubic meters to 636,000 cubic meters, with a 6.35% increase. The daily average warehouse - out volume in Shandong increased by 10,000 cubic meters to 340,000 cubic meters, with a 3% increase; the daily average warehouse - out volume in Jiangsu increased by 36,000 cubic meters to 226,000 cubic meters, with a 19% increase [5]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly. Although the demand is increasing, the supply is increasing even more. Pay attention to the change of the spot - futures arbitrage window. The increase in the production of polysilicon and silicone is beneficial to the demand for industrial silicon and inventory digestion, as well as the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon. But if the demand weakens again, the inventory pressure will suppress the price of industrial silicon [6]. 3. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: On June 24, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,150 yuan/ton. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged at 7,600 yuan/ton [6]. - Inter - month Spread: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, with a 50.00% increase; the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, with a 16.67% increase [6]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 0.69 million tons to 30.77 million tons, with a 2.29% increase. The production in Xinjiang decreased by 0.44 million tons to 16.31 million tons, with a 2.60% decrease; the production in Yunnan decreased by 0.34 million tons to 1 million tons, with a 25.43% decrease; the production in Sichuan increased by 1.24 million tons to 2.37 million tons, with a 109.47% increase [6]. - Inventory Change: As of June 24, the Xinjiang inventory decreased by 1.09 million tons to 17.58 million tons, with a 5.81% decrease; the Yunnan inventory increased by 0.04 million tons to 2.62 million tons, with a 1.55% increase. The social inventory decreased by 1.3 million tons to 55.9 million tons, with a 2.27% decrease [6]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The polysilicon futures price fluctuated greatly. The current fundamental contradiction is the mismatch between weak demand and high supply, which leads to a strong expectation of price decline. Pay attention to the production release of polysilicon. If there is continuous resumption of production, the price will be under pressure. Hold short positions cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On June 24, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to 3,415 yuan/ton, with a 12.10% decrease; the cauliflower - like material basis (average price) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to 9,415 yuan/ton, with a 4.75% decrease [7]. - Futures Price and Inter - month Spread: The PS2506 contract increased by 470 yuan/ton to 31,085 yuan/ton, with a 1.54% increase. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 845 yuan/ton, with a 6.29% increase; the PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 125 yuan/ton to 485 yuan/ton, with a 34.72% increase [7]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.07 million tons to 9.61 million tons, with a 0.73% increase. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.21 million tons to 0.08 million tons, with a 72.71% decrease; the polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 million tons to 0.21 million tons, with a 66.17% increase [7].
《特殊商品》日报-20250625
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-25 02:59