大越期货棉花早报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The USDA June report shows that for the 2025/26 cotton season, the global production is 2547.2 million tons, consumption is 2563.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1672.1 million tons. The ICAC June report indicates that for the same period, the production is 2600 million tons and consumption is 2570 million tons. The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2025/26 production at 625 million tons, imports at 140 million tons, consumption at 740 million tons, and ending inventory at 823 million tons [5]. - The basis shows that the national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,883 yuan, with a basis of 1273 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's estimated ending inventory for the 2025/26 season is 823 million tons, which is a bearish factor [5]. - The 20 - day moving average of the cotton futures price is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bullish trend [5]. - The main positions in the futures market are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [5]. - The US cotton has a slight rebound, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high. Considering that the textile industry has entered the off - season, the upward momentum of the 09 main contract will not be strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 13,600 - 13,700 yuan, and a short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period in the future, as well as the futures price approaching historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamental analysis shows a neutral situation overall, with mixed signals from production, consumption, and inventory data from different sources. The basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is bullish, and the main positions are bearish. A short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered for the 09 main contract due to the off - season in the textile industry [5]. - Bullish factors are the reduction of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the futures price near historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in foreign trade orders, and increased inventory [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Data: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is 2547.2 million tons (a decrease of 17.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast), consumption is 2563.8 million tons (a decrease of 7 million tons), and the total import is 975.8 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons), and the total export is 975.1 million tons [11][12]. - ICAC Data: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is 2600 million tons, and consumption is 2570 million tons [5]. - Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Data: For the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and the ending inventory is 823 million tons [5][16]. - Customs Data: In May, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. 5. Position Data - The main positions in the cotton futures market are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [5].