甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is in a low - valuation state, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With macroeconomic instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. The basis is + 100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under neutral to excessive pressure. If exports continue to boom or PDH device maintenance increases, supply pressure can be alleviated [6]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150. Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summary by Sector Methanol - Price Changes: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 100, South China spot by 133, and Northwest converted - to - futures price by 18. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract basis increased by 30. The MTO profit on the futures market increased by 187 [1]. - Supply and Demand: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has started. Iranian production has decreased, but non - Iranian supply has increased, and domestic supply has also risen [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Changes: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, North China LL decreased by 115, and East China LD decreased by 75. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 194 [6]. - Inventory and Supply: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Changes: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Shandong propylene decreased by 90, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 188. The basis increased by 60 [6]. - Inventory and Supply: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under over - capacity, the 09 contract is under pressure [6]. PVC - Price Changes: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased by 25, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 80 [10]. - Inventory and Supply: Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing, and the load is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability [10].