原油成品油早报-20250625

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The U.S. announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA U.S. commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are greatly amplified by geopolitical factors [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From June 18 - 24, 2025, WTI decreased from $75.14 to $64.37, a change of - $4.14; BRENT decreased from $76.70 to $67.14, a change of - $4.34; DUBAI decreased from $70.84 to $69.13, a change of - $0.75. Other related products also showed price changes, such as SC decreasing by 55.90 yuan, and domestic gasoline - BRT increasing by 262.00 yuan [3] 2. Daily News - On June 24, Iranian President Pezeshkian announced that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel ended, and reconstruction work would start. Israel's plot to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and cause social unrest failed, while its important facilities were damaged. Israel's Prime Minister's Office confirmed the attack on an Iranian radar facility and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [3] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 427.7 million barrels, compared with an expected - 18.3 million barrels and a previous value of - 1013.3 million barrels [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 1.075 million barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.3 million barrels to 13.431 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 2.65% decrease), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.23 million barrels to 402.3 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.672 million barrels per day to 5.504 million barrels per day. The U.S. four - week average supply of crude oil products was 19.981 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease from the same period last year [4] - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, the production of gasoline and diesel increased, the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased, gasoline and diesel were stocked up, the main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, and the local refinery comprehensive profit improved [4]