大越期货沥青期货早报-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned asphalt production in China in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the sample enterprise output decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the waterproofing membrane开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - The refinery has recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted. The weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3544 - 3616 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The device maintenance volume is estimated to be 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - Expectation: The refinery has recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted. The weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3544 - 3616 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Basis: On June 24, the spot price in Shandong is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 180 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 1.353 million tons, unchanged from the previous month; the in - plant inventory is 746,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 25,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57%. The social inventory remains stable, and the in - plant and port inventories continue to be depleted [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increases [10].