Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. For example, the stock index is strong due to the improved macro - situation, while the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and capital interest rates. Precious metals are influenced by geopolitical events and Fed's attitude towards interest rates. Different commodities in the futures market also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and rose throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.30%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted [2][3]. - News: Domestically, important meetings were held, and a grand celebration for the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was announced. Overseas, Trump criticized the Fed's interest - rate policy, and Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [3][4]. - Funding: On June 24, A - share trading volume increased significantly. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2092 billion yuan [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Given the current basis rate of the main contracts, with relatively stable support below the index and the need for a driving force for upward breakthrough, it is recommended to try a covered combination strategy on the CSI 1000 variety [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [6]. - Funding: The central bank's reverse repurchase operation volume increased, and MLF was incrementally renewed. The market sentiment was relatively stable, and the end - of - quarter capital fluctuations were expected to be controllable [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Although the bond market is under short - term pressure, the overall pattern may remain strong. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to economic data and capital trends, and consider positive arbitrage and curve - steepening strategies [8][9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Performance: Due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and Fed Chairman Powell was cautious about interest - rate cuts. Precious metals tumbled during the session but recovered some losses at the end of the session [10][13]. - Future Outlook: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but in the short term, it lacks a clear driving force and faces risks. Silver is supported by factors such as the recovery of the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, but the upward drive is weakened. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options on gold and try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options on silver [13][14]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - Spot Price: As of June 24, shipping companies' prices varied. The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends [15]. - Fundamentals: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of major economies reflected the demand situation [15]. - Logic and Suggestion: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to closely observe the shipping company's quotes in late July [16]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: On June 24, the average price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, but the premium decreased, and the overall trading was average [17]. - Macro: The COMEX - LME premium is controversial, and the Fed's economic outlook is moving towards "stagflation", which restricts the upward and downward space of copper prices [18][21]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the production of refined copper increases, and the "rush - to - export" demand continues, but it may overdraw future demand. The inventory situation is complex, with COMEX inventory accumulating and domestic inventory slightly decreasing [19][20]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [21]. Alumina - Spot: On June 24, the spot price of alumina in various regions decreased [21][22]. - Supply and Inventory: The production increased in May, and the inventory situation is complex. The market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [22][23]. Aluminum - Spot: On June 24, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [23]. - Supply and Demand: The production of electrolytic aluminum is stable, the downstream start - up rate is under pressure, and the inventory decline rate slows down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [24][25]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On June 24, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [25]. - Supply and Demand: The supply and demand of the recycled aluminum alloy market are both weak, but the demand side is more prominent. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [26][27]. Zinc - Spot: On June 24, the average price of zinc ingots increased, but the market trading was dull [27]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, the demand is weakening, and the low inventory provides support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 [28][30]. Tin - Spot: On June 24, the price of tin increased, but the trading was cold. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [30][31][33]. Nickel - Spot: On June 24, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased [33]. - Supply and Demand: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in a range [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: On June 24, the price of stainless steel decreased [36]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range [37][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: On June 24, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading did not improve significantly [40]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is relatively high, the demand is stable but difficult to boost in the off - peak season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price is stable, and the basis has weakened. The price is expected to weaken again in the off - peak season, and it is recommended to try short positions or sell out - of - the - money call options [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - Spot and Futures: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder has changed slightly, and the futures price has fluctuated. The demand for iron water is high, but there is a risk of weakening in the off - peak season. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in the range of 670 - 720 [47][48]. Coking Coal - Spot and Futures: The spot price is weakly stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is affected by environmental protection and other factors, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short - term buy on dips and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [49][52]. Coke - Spot and Futures: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is close to the bottom. The supply is tightening marginally, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [53][56]. Ferrosilicon - Spot and Futures: The spot price is weak, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [57][58]. Manganese Silicon - Spot and Futures: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is difficult to stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [60][62].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250625
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-25 06:31