瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market currently shows a situation of oversupply, with continuously declining spot transaction prices. The supply side has sufficient available circulating goods and large inventory pressure, while the demand side is weak, and downstream cathode material enterprises adopt a cautious procurement strategy. The terminal new energy market demand has not improved substantially, and the inventory in each link of the industrial chain remains at a high level. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The technical indicator shows a positive signal. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position and control risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 60,880 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 44,812 lots, down 17,985 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 350,406 lots, up 6,842 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 380 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 22,375 lots/ton, down 4,404 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 689 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 5,725 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,548 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points. The monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of some cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate remain unchanged. The operating rates of ternary cathode materials and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have increased by 2 percentage points to 55% and 49% respectively. The monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles are 1,270,000 and 1,307,000 respectively, with increases of 19,000 and 81,000. The cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points. The cumulative sales and exports have increased significantly [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position is 138,317 lots, up 8,429 lots; the total put position is 58,809 lots, up 7,337 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions is 42.52%, up 2.8896 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.23%, up 0.0094 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will organize a new energy vehicle consumption season in counties and towns from July to December 2025, and implement the old - for - new policy. Six departments including the central bank have issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, with a 50 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care. Xiaomi's chairman is confident about the launch of Xiaomi YU7. At the 2025 Summer Davos Forum, economists believe that China's economic growth will remain above 5% in the second half of the year [2].