Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, the TC cost of copper concentrate remains low, and the inventory at domestic ports drops rapidly, with subsequent raw material supply likely to gradually tighten. In terms of supply, given the relatively tight supply of copper concentrate and substitutes such as scrap copper and blister copper, some smelters may have passive production cut and maintenance plans, and the growth rate of refined copper supply will slow down. In terms of demand, affected by the off - season, orders of some downstream copper product processing enterprises weaken, and the operating rate shows a seasonal decline. In the spot market, downstream purchasing sentiment remains cautious, sensitive to copper price fluctuations, resulting in average trading performance. In terms of inventory, social inventory accumulates slightly due to weakening demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Copper may be in a weak supply - demand situation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.22, up 0.1729 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, with implied volatility slightly decreasing. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis and the red bars expanding. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract is 78,810 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,699 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 180 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper is 137,637 lots, down 12,728 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Copper is 4,882 lots, up 1,767 lots. The LME copper inventory is 94,675 tons, down 1,200 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 40,150 tons, down 1,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 21,470 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 78,650 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 230 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 150.85 dollars/ton, down 129.12 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC cost of domestic copper smelters is - 44.78 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 68,940 yuan/metal ton, up 160 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 69,640 yuan/metal ton, up 160 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,190 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 204 billion yuan, up 63.184 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 3623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235 million pieces, up 680,000 pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 8.49%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 8.77%, down 0.14%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 10.37%, down 0.0142%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.22, up 0.1729 [2] Industry News - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum kicks off, with "uncertainty" as the core background for discussions on topics such as the world economic order and trade pattern trends. At the Chief Economists' Briefing of this forum, most economists notice the stable performance of the Chinese economy amidst global financial market fluctuations. Peking University's Huang Yiping says the Chinese economy remains stable, and the economic growth rate is expected to stay above 5% in the second half of the year. The central bank and five other departments jointly issue the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects. The "Opinions" clarify the establishment of a re - loan for service consumption and elderly care with a quota of 500 billion yuan. Regarding the Fed, Powell says the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait and see before considering interest - rate adjustments. Most officials think it is appropriate to cut interest rates later this year. Bostic believes there is no need to cut interest rates currently and expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut later this year. Harker says there is no urgent reason to cut interest rates and the interest - rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time. Kashkari says the Fed is in a wait - and - see mode due to tariff uncertainties. Williams says tariffs and uncertainties will lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year. Collins says the current moderately restrictive monetary policy stance is necessary. Barr says the monetary policy is in a favorable position and the Fed will wait and see how the economy develops. Many experts expect the central bank to continue cutting interest rates and reserve requirements in the second half of the year, with a possible interest - rate cut of 30 basis points and a reserve - requirement cut of 0.5 percentage points. There is a possibility of restarting treasury bond trading operations this year [2]
瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250625
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-25 08:34