贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious Metals: The easing of the Middle - East situation and the possible delay of interest rate cuts have suppressed gold prices in the short - term, but long - term supporting factors remain [3]. - Copper: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton. Considering the possible weakening of demand, the upside pressure is large and the downside support is relatively weak [13]. - Aluminum: Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory is the short - term core factor supporting prices, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a long - term bearish outlook. Alumina is in low - level operation, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [30][31][32]. - Zinc: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and market sentiment should be focused on, along with inventory data [59]. - Nickel: The overall nickel industry is affected by the situation in the Middle - East and the US macro - level. Nickel ore may remain tight, the contradiction in the nickel - iron link is difficult to resolve, and the supply - demand situation of stainless steel may improve if the production cut continues. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term. The continuous decline in inventory and the under - recovery of upstream tin mines provide support, while weak downstream demand creates pressure [88]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - Silicon Industry Chain: The supply of the silicon industry chain is strong, while the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Influencing Factors: The cease - fire in the Middle - East has weakened the safe - haven demand, and the possible delay of interest rate cuts has tightened the US dollar liquidity, suppressing gold prices [3]. - Price Data: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in the report [4]. Copper - Price Outlook: Short - term copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton, with greater upside pressure and weaker downside support [13]. - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [14]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and spot premiums are given [19]. - Import and Processing Data: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are presented [23]. - Inventory Data: The latest data on SHFE and LME copper inventories are provided [27][28]. Aluminum - Aluminum: The supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and low inventory supports short - term prices. The inventory increase on June 23 may or may not be the inflection point [30]. - Alumina: The Axis mine in Guinea may remain shut down in the short - term, and alumina is in low - level operation due to the game between production resumption and maintenance [31]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost is strongly supported, but the demand growth may slow down. The futures contract is in a BACK structure, and the price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [32]. - Price and Spread Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina futures, as well as various price spreads, are provided [35][38]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina spot prices, as well as various basis and price spreads, are given [43]. - Inventory Data: The latest data on SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are provided [51]. Zinc - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and inventory data should be focused on [59]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are provided [60]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices and spot premiums are given [65]. - Inventory Data: The latest data on SHFE and LME zinc inventories are provided [68]. Nickel - Industry Situation: The overall industry is affected by the Middle - East situation and US macro - factors. Nickel ore may be tight, the nickel - iron link has contradictions, and the stainless - steel supply - demand situation may improve with production cuts. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided [73][75]. - Inventory and Related Data: Data on nickel spot prices, warehouse receipts, nickel ore prices, and inventory are presented [79][81]. Tin - Price Outlook: Tin prices may remain stable in the short - term, with support from inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weak downstream demand [88]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [89]. - Inventory Data: The latest data on SHFE and LME tin inventories are provided [97]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Situation: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are provided [104][108]. - Inventory Data: Data on Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and various lithium carbonate inventories are presented [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures prices are provided [115][116]. - Related Product Prices: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other silicon - related products are presented [124][126]. - Inventory and Production Data: Data on industrial silicon production, inventory, and industry average costs are provided [131][137][140].