软商品日报-20250625

Report Overview - Date: June 25, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views - Sugar: ICE raw sugar futures' near - month contract hit a 4 - year low on Tuesday due to good production prospects and falling crude oil. Short - term Zheng sugar prices follow the external market but are supported by the previous low. Pay attention to the support level at 5600 [3]. - Cotton: With stable Sino - US policies and a demand off - season, cotton price rebound is limited. However, due to low imported cotton volume, Xinjiang cotton destocking is fast. By the end of the year, supply - demand may tighten, narrowing the downside space. Pay attention to the pressure at 13600 and support at 13000, as well as the off - season destocking speed [16]. - Apple: Affected by seasonal fruits, apple sales are limited. In Shandong, packaging is limited by the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the main supply is from northern Shaanxi and secondary areas are mostly cleared. New - season apples are in the bagging period. Shandong's bagging quantity is slightly more than last year, while the western region's is estimated to be less, with an overall estimated production cut of 5% - 8%. Monitor bagging numbers [21]. - Jujube: The first - round girdling in southern Xinjiang jujube - growing areas is ending. Due to high fruit - hanging in the 24/25 season and recent high temperatures, the first - crop fruit quantity is low. The second - crop fruit is the main contributor to the yield. Pay attention to the impact of high temperatures on the second - crop fruit. Currently, prices are stable with light trading [29]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Futures Prices: SR01 closed at 5577 with a daily increase of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 0.76%; SR03 at 5552 (0.33% daily, 0.74% weekly); SR05 at 5529 (0.24% daily, 0.58% weekly); SR07 at 5766 (0.38% daily, 0.6% weekly); SR09 at 5757 (0.82% daily, 1.37% weekly); SR11 at 5635 (0.68% daily, 0.84% weekly); SB at 16.33 (-1.15% daily, -0.73% weekly); W at 467.4 (0.15% daily, -0.47% weekly) [4]. - Price Spreads: SR01 - 05 was 39 (-9 daily, -6 weekly); SR05 - 09 was -194 (0 daily, -12 weekly); SR09 - 01 was 155 (9 daily, 18 weekly); etc [4]. - Basis: For example, Nanning - SR01 was 485 (10 daily increase, 9 weekly increase); Kunming - SR01 was 305 (15 daily increase, -6 weekly increase) [11]. - Import Prices: Brazilian import quota - within price was 4450 (57 daily increase, -26 weekly increase), quota - outside was 5653 (75 daily increase, -33 weekly increase); Thai import quota - within was 4460 (45 daily increase, -38 weekly increase), quota - outside was 5665 (59 daily increase, -50 weekly increase) [14]. Cotton - Futures Prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13625 (40 increase, 0.29%); Cotton 05 at 13605 (50 increase, 0.37%); Cotton 09 at 13645 (35 increase, 0.26%); Yarn 01 at 19990 (120 increase, 0.6%); Yarn 05 at 20055 (-100% change); Yarn 09 at 19995 (90 increase, 0.45%) [17]. - Price Spreads: Cotton basis was 1273 (-156 daily); Cotton 01 - 05 was 30 (0 daily); Cotton 05 - 09 was -55 (-60 daily); etc [18]. Apple - Futures Prices: AP01 closed at 7586 (0.21% daily, 0.84% weekly); AP03 at 7603 (0.04% daily, 0.6% weekly); AP04 at 7651 (-0.14% daily, 0.87% weekly); etc [22]. - Spot Prices: For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4.1 (0% daily and weekly); Luochuan semi - commodity 70 was 4.8 (0% daily and weekly) [22]. - Price Spreads: AP01 - 05 was -135 (7.14% daily, -0.74% weekly); AP05 - 10 was 31 (3.33% daily, 82.35% weekly); AP10 - 01 was 104 (8.33% daily, -12.61% weekly) [23]. Jujube - Production Situation: The first - round girdling in southern Xinjiang is ending. Due to high fruit - hanging last season and high temperatures, first - crop fruit is limited. Second - crop fruit is crucial. Temperatures may remain high this week, with a weekend drop and a subsequent rise, posing challenges to new - season yield [29]. - Market Situation: No arrivals in Guangzhou Ruyifang market yesterday, 3 arrivals in Hebei Cuierzhuang market. Downstream trading is light with sporadic deals, and spot prices are stable [29].